The United States is by way of far the most important purchase of petroleum, averaging almost 20 million barrels an afternoon, or about 23% of the sector’s usual intake. Although the U.S. Is the 1/3 biggest manufacturer of petroleum, the nation is fifty-seven% dependent on imported crude to maintain its international have an effect on and the lifestyles of its citizens. The availability and distribution of this crucial commodity, unfortunately, is changing rapidly in an environment that is characterized by rising competitive international locations, extended conflicts, transnational threats, and worldwide warming. It is likewise believed that the sector has reached its “Hubbert’s Peak” in oil reserves and manufacturing will decline hastily over the following 100 years. Consequently, the U.S. Will retain to experience the lines of oil atrophy and face a tough destiny except it changes direction.
U.S. Leaders and students apprehend the need to reduce the dependence on overseas oil and feature enacted regulation to escape America’s destiny. Recently, the President unveiled parts of his new comprehensive electricity coverage, the cornerstones of which are: multiplied home manufacturing; progressed gas requirements for vehicles; and renewable energies. These are tremendous steps within the right path. Nonetheless, the mere reality that oil is an over fed on, excessive demand, a globalized commodity that affects every citizen underscores the want for a greater comprehensive method to electricity security.
The Administration should enlarge its coverage for strength security right into a broader framework and rebrand it National Energy Security Strategy (NESS), with the Department of Energy as the lead organization. It ought to embody a 20-30 yr roadmap for America’s safe transformation to a greater secure energy future underneath six valuable topics: Engage, Secure, Conserve, Adapt, Protect, and Evolve (ESCAPE).
The following are brief definitions:
Engage – Engaging our companions in power alternate, assuring them of our commitments, and main the cooperative attempt between suppliers and clients with a purpose to mitigate potential friction factors in the destiny.
Secure – Maintaining the safety and stability of our energy assets, such as our oil providers, see traces of verbal exchange, and vital infrastructure (each domestic and abroad).
Conserve – Promoting discipline in strength consumption through conservation efforts, incentives, and different equipment.
Adapt – Transitioning to a more diverse and balanced blend of power resources through type and origin with a purpose to make certain resiliency during strength shortages and different world crises.
Protect – Protecting the surroundings through reduced emissions, the use of cleaner and less environmentally harmful assets of strength, and having fast response abilities to address fuel-related screw ups.
Evolve – Innovating new technologies, advocating new ideas, and transforming the infrastructure and existence to create a more secure and more sustainable electricity system.
Energy security involves more stakeholders than some other essential hobby. The elements comprising energy security should now not be fragmented into diverse unsynchronized techniques and plans. Rather, they should be synthesized into one complete strategy so that everyone is aware now not simplest their roles and obligations, however additionally the relationships and impacts in their movements to others. This article outlines the six proposed subject matters of the NESS and the associated issues that warrant an unmarried complete method.
The country’s leaders want to navigate away from our oil dependency via rules and spending and this is a noble task. However, inside the close to term, the U.S. Should rely on imported oil – it is an inescapable conclusion. Accordingly, The NESS need to cope with how engagement sports will help the gradual transition from imported oil. Engagement should involve diplomacy, leadership, and a hint of political agility a good way to mitigate future disputation between the suppliers and purchasers.
The worldwide political environment is turning into extra complex inside the globalized international of oil exchange. By 2030 the arena will consume about 118 Million barrels of oil in keeping with the day, or more or less 30 Million extra barrels each day above trendy rate. This has spawned a fast-paced diplomatic scramble by using both developed and developing international locations to at ease the last oil reserves because of the sluggish development toward extra ample and more secure renewable energies. China and India are aggressively pursuing deals with new partners in oil supply so as to meet their national strategic dreams for the subsequent numerous many years. This, coupled with Middle Eastern Muslims’ “adverse” views of the U.S., raises the stakes in diplomacy. Energy economist Pete Tertzakian coined the First Principle of Energy Consumption, which observes that a state’s wealth is at once related to its degree of energy intake. China, specifically, has aggressively engaged oil manufacturers international for the opportunity to at ease a huge float of oil. Recently, China supplanted the USA in each Saudi Arabia and Iraq with large export agreements. China also recently signed widespread oil export agreements with the U.S.’s first and third biggest exporters of oil (Canada and Venezuela). China’s latest successes propose certainly one of the things: (1) both America has been out-bargained, or (2) our engagement efforts want development.
The Engagement subject of the NESS has to recognition diplomatic efforts on keeping our present day sources of imported oil, whilst forging new relationships with growing countries of remarkable capacity. Engagement must include coordinated measures which could without delay counter efforts of China in states and areas wherein the U.S. Competes for crucial pastimes. The Persian Gulf is one such area where China has step by step accelerated its manage over oil exports thru exchange agreements, infrastructure improvements, and different beneficial incentives. In addition to beating out the US in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, China is likewise the second biggest importer of Iranian oil, which gives it a capability gain in shaping Middle Eastern politics.
Despite contemporary necessity, the United States should ultimately come to be much less reliant on Persian Gulf oil. Engaging African and Latin American international locations along the Atlantic Ocean ought to lessen our dependency on Middle Eastern oil and greatly reduce threat with the aid of shortening sea strains of communication. The United States attracts about 20% of its imported oil from the Persian Gulf and will offset a portion of this through new relationships. In 2007, as an instance, Brazil located the Carioca-Sugar Loaf Oil discipline off of the coast of Rio de Janeiro and it’s far believed to hold as much as 40 billion barrels of light crude. This discovery, along side several other fields within the place, could offer as much as several million barrels of oil every day, or sufficient to without difficulty update a portion or all of the U.S.’s Middle Eastern exports.
The United States should also lead inside the established order of a worldwide consortium of patron nations to likely work out any capacity exchange issues or conflicts and to provide a counter pressure to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
“He who owns the oil will own the sector, for he’ll own the seas via the heavy oils, the air by way of the extremely refined oils, and the land by means of the petrol and the illuminating oils. And further to those he’ll rule his fellow guy in a monetary feel, with the aid of reason of the super wealth he’ll derive from oil – the excellent substance that’s extra prominent and greater valuable these days than gold itself.” -Henri Berenger
Sustained get admission to, and glide of imported oil during this vital transition to a more secure energy blend ought to stay at the vanguard of the National Energy Security Strategy (NESS). Oil is intrinsically linked to the financial power of the U.S. And worldwide demand has risen to this type of level that any diffused disruption in international delivery will impact the financial system, down to the man or woman consumer.
Throughout the sector, there are numerous important areas where supply interdiction could ignite a nearby disaster with international implications. There are, as an instance, oil transit chokepoints along sea traces of communications, which include: the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal and Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline (SUMED), the Bab el-Mendab, the Turkish Straights, and the Panama Canal. Through these 8 slender passages waft roughly forty two.7 million barrels of oil daily by day en route to consumers, or approximately one-half of the world’s everyday intake. Any disruption of this go with the flow (which include the 2008 hijacking of an oil supertanker via Somali pirates or the 2002 al Qaeda suicide boat assault at the Limbourg) ought to have profound outcomes on the U.S. Economy.
There are different disconcerting warning signs and symptoms that the U.S. Ought to heed. Of the pinnacle ten U.S. Oil exporters, as an instance, eight are categorized as “in threat” of becoming failed states. These blanketed: Iraq (critical), Nigeria, Colombia, Angola, Algeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico (borderline). Terrorism, both at domestic and overseas, is likewise a steady hazard to America oil exchange and can have resounding consequences at the financial system if focused toward the oil enterprise. Past assaults on oil infrastructure have shown the high-quality consequences that terrorism can gain. Al Qaeda’s 2005 attack on the Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia had an evidential impact at the global markets. Terrorist leaders, such as Osama bin Laden, have additionally referred to as upon Muslim extremists to consciousness assaults on oil infrastructure that serves western hobbies. As currently as for March 2010, Saudi Arabian security forces arrested 113 al Qaeda militants that have been plotting to assault key oil facilities in Riyadh.
Piracy is a growing threat to the oil industry, having garnered over “tens of billions” of bucks in ransom money from hijackings along the Horn of Africa and in different places like the Gulf of Guinea. Oil tankers are hijacked regularly for thousands and thousands USD (more or less round three million USD according to the vessel), with cargoes that price within the range of 80 – one hundred sixty million greenbacks. The Sirius Star supertanker, as an instance, changed into hijacked in 2008 and become carrying over a million barrels of crude (approximately 10% of U.S. everyday consumption).
The U.S. Homeland, as well, isn’t always with out its percentage of vulnerabilities. The Gulf of Mexico and bordering states have the bulk of the U.S.’s home oil production competencies. There are oil systems, refineries, and the bulk of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) all nested in this vicinity and susceptible to a full range of assaults and sabotage. The latest Deepwater Horizon oil spill incident in the Gulf, despite the fact that categorized an accident, demonstrates how unfavorable a capability attack on infrastructure might be to U.S. Pursuits. Moreover, this unparalleled incident is demonstrating the want for the U.S. Government to encompass multi-national organizations in its strategic framework.
There are most effective approximately 149 oil refineries within the US. In order to feed the country’s demand for gasoline, those refineries function between ninety-two to ninety-seven percentage capacity year long, leaving little room for mistakes. The safety of that important infrastructure and key assets (CIKR) is, as a result, any other element of electricity protection that desires to be coordinated with the milestones set forth inside the NESS.
The NESS must guide and inform DoD, DOE, DHS, and others in their duties to secure the resources of electricity which can be necessary to safely make the transition to opportunity fuels over the following 20 to 30 years. Since resources of US oil originate from numerous risky places in the course of the sector, the NESS ought to transcend traditional boundaries set up by way of departments to offer an extra comprehensive understanding of the goals, priorities, and milestones for accomplishing strength protection via all factors of ESCAPE. Clearly, the security of the sea lines of verbal exchange, safety and capacity building of our top oil exporters and the safety of oil infrastructure and vessels require a global approach.
“Conservation is the fastest, cheapest, most realistic supply of energy.” – President Jimmy Carter
Conservation is as essential to the NESS, as drug call for the discount is to the National Drug Control Strategy. Over 70% of all petroleum fed on by way of America is thru the transportation region, of which nearly 64% of this is through light cars (motors, mild trucks, and bikes). This approach that the bulk of America’s power appetite is derived from a combination of many smaller transportation requirements, inclusive of privately owned automobiles, small business motors and trucks, and other inefficient modes of transportation. Energy intake within the United States is unmatched with the aid of other international locations and lots of it must be mitigated thru call for a reduction.
The number one objective of the NESS underneath the Conserve subject should be a quantifiable reduction in intake via conservation efforts. The President made numerous bulletins on March thirty-first, 2010 that touched at the fringes of conservation but didn’t strike at the coronary heart of the trouble. Higher gas requirements for motors, alternative fuels, and home exploration and manufacturing do not result in the mobilization of the masses to do extra towards decreasing the growing dependence on imported oil. Even the proposed Home Star Bill uses an incentive-based technique to power conservation, however, leaves the intake price to the person uses. As written, those tools invite a paradoxical reaction that leads to doubtlessly higher demand and intake. This has been known as the Jevons Paradox, Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate, or without a doubt the rebound effect. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 was an important step towards comprehensive electricity protection, however, missed the opportunity to invoke conservation. The Act addresses higher fuel financial system requirements, renewable fuels, car and appliance era, power mandates for buildings, research and development, and several different regions. However, the handiest try to deal with the person patron turned into the allotment of five million greenbacks yearly for the Department of Energy to conduct a national media marketing campaign.
In order to correctly mitigate our oil addiction, countrywide leaders have to embark on a conservation marketing campaign with regulation and incentives as key elements to the NESS with the intention to guide the reduction of unbridled consumption hand in hand with the other milestones of ESCAPE.
The ultimate time the U.S. Leaders successfully impacted call for the increase of oil became between 1977 and 1985, in part because of law and movement through President Jimmy Carter during his time period. Through his “Crisis of Confidence” speech and numerous acts which include the Fuel Use Act, he became able to each inspire and put in force conservation for the betterment of the state.
Enforcing conservation through law isn’t a famous mission, however, however, a essential element of a holistic approach. The NESS should encompass milestones for the reduction inside the use of oil, followed with certain corresponding milestones on enhancements to mass transportation, infrastructure, the development of renewable energies, environmental restrictions, and incentives. The US Government ought to also keep in mind the slow growth of a fuel tax that would now not simplest activate the average citizen to be extra selective in buying and using in my view owned motors, but could further assist in mitigating the national deficit that led to 2008.
The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), in coordination with the Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, and Internal Revenue Service, could be the appropriate lead federal agency for the conserve subject matter of the NESS. In coordination with the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, the USEPA ought to oversee the strategic implementation of the conservation efforts.
The Global’s general oil-generating and refining potential are presently operating at over 97.Five percentage, because of this that any disruption of oil delivers inside the global could have results on each customer. In the latest look at, researchers at Oxford University concluded that by means of 2015 the sector will surpass its supply ability with demand, forcing countries which have now not organized for this turning point to make tough selections on the way to survive the unanticipated period of transition to opportunity fuels. Adapt is a critical subject of the NESS. Adapt, in a strategic context, is the slow and orderly diversification of our modern power portfolio in keeping with the converting circumstances of world oil demand a good way to break out a future breaking factor. The Adopt topic of the NESS ought to deal with now not only how the nation will diversify its energy mix through the years, but additionally how America will are searching for more stable and convenient assets of oil supply to be able to preserve resiliency at some stage in destiny crises around the globe.
Using 2008 facts, oil money owed for 40 percent of the strong market in the United States. This high level of dependency points to the want to diversify our energy blend to more dependable, cleaner electricity. Several international locations have finished this reputedly hard project. Japan, as an instance, has reduced its dependency on oil by means of roughly 30 percent and keeps to transform its strength mix primarily based on its New National Energy Security Strategy of 2006. Denmark is some other trail-blazer. The oil crisis of 1973 became the catalyst for exchange for the Danish government, which accurately instituted an energy method that yielded sufficient wind strength infrastructure to offer 20% of u. S . A .’s power. Admirably, Denmark’s imaginative and prescient is to end up a hundred% impartial of fossil fuels.
Adapting America’s cutting-edge electricity mix requires a few open considering several historically debatable strength resources. Nuclear energy, for example, is a divisive topic that causes both elected officers and their ingredients to shy away. Yet, nuclear strength already offers approximately 20 percent of America’s strength and has avoided the emissions of millions of quick lots of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and carbon dioxide. France makes use of nuclear strength to produce eighty percent of its energy.
Domestic oil manufacturing is every other possible supply of energy but has suffered recent setbacks because of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The Outer Continental Shelf surrounding the US possesses almost 86 billion barrels of oil and a few 420 trillion cubic toes of herbal gas. This does not endorse that the U.S. Have to completely divert to these native land sources, but must recollect the risk tradeoff among domestic-produced versus Persian Gulf oil.
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) is any other supply of electricity that has but to seize the extensive hobby of American industries. It is the cleanest burning fossil gasoline and has the capability to replace both coal and fuel-burning strength plants and vehicles. Despairingly, LNG has no longer been extensively embraced inside the U.S. And has led to low investments by personal organizations. Consequently, handiest seven of the 40 LNG terminals which have been approved for production in the U.S. Will probably be constructed.
The choice of future fuels ought to be cautiously determined. Several credible analysts accept as true with that corn ethanol is environmentally unsound, threatening to food resources, and a facade due to a number of fossil fuels in the long run used to domesticate, process and ship it.
Another component of adapting the country’s electricity blend for the destiny is to diversify our oil export companions closer to extra solid and more secure lengthy-term resources. Brazil, for example, is a strong authority that recently observed a huge oil reserve believed to incorporate anywhere between two and seventy billion barrels of mild crude and is about one-half of the ocean distance to New Orleans than the Persian Gulf.
Protecting the surroundings should be a concern in the NESS and is indissoluble from the other crucial factors of the energy strategy. Greenhouse gases are inflicting weather alternate at unparalleled ranges and have been progressively growing because of human activities, specifically from burning fossil fuels. Emissions of various kinds have induced worldwide warming tendencies, with the remaining seven of eight years registering as the warmest recorded years over the past century. Similarly, the price of warming inside the ultimate thirty years has been 3 times greater than all of the previous 100 years.
CO2 emissions are the most distinguished contributors to these undesirable traits and are directly connected to the use of fossil fuels, particularly coal and oil. The United States and China, by far, lead the world in CO2 emissions, delivering 20% every of the earth’s general output. The United States on my own has failed to lead, for the reason that it is the top emitter of CO2 (tied with China) and has the lowest fraction of the sector’s population of the pinnacle 5 countries (5% as compared to China’s 20%).
In order to guard the environment and save you the needless acceleration of climate change, the US ought to progressively mitigate emissions and in addition lead by means of example for different countries. This should be accomplished, however, in a coordinated manner that does not cut price the modern-day want to use oil and coal for economic healing and sustaining world influence. This way that the established order of emissions controls and other environmental safeguards ought to be synchronized with the employment of sound opportunity fuels, the development of latest technology, the slow retraction from imported oil, and the growth of our financial system.
There are several examples of how well-supposed emissions controls can cause unexpected consequences. Economically, as an example, the airline enterprise should take the toughest hit from carbon taxes due to the CO2 degrees that are emitted from jets. This means that either the airways may be forced to make further cuts on the way to result in much less business, trade, and trade, or that the fees could be surpassed to customers.
Environmentally, a latest examine of Colorado’s wind electricity software concluded that wind energy sarcastically reasons more emissions due to the intermittent “cycling” of coal plants that are needed to rebalance total power in the grid. Still another illustration is where studies monitor ability increases in carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions associated with the huge shift of the agriculture area to developing bio-gasoline crops. The point here is that without a strategic expertise of ways defensive the surroundings are interrelated and, as a result, balanced with the conservation, model, and evolution of the U.S. Energy area, the greater unintended results ought to end result with independent, blanket environmental mandates.
Notwithstanding political views, the currently proposed American Power Act is a sign that the nation’s leadership is cognizant of the interrelationships between shielding the surroundings and sustaining the economic system for the duration of this monumental transformation. Within it, there are provisions for cleaner power development, including the incentives for using nuclear electricity, new parameters for more secure off-shore drilling, and sensible requirements for the retrofitting of coal electricity plants. Acknowledging that exchange calls for time, it also mandates plans and techniques for smooth transportation and pollution reduction, and in addition, attempts to increase the scope of environmental stewardship to the international stage. It even specifies which departments and organizations are chargeable for the numerous movements, plans, techniques, and reports to Congress. In essence, the act has many attributes that might shape a part of the use of the NESS.
Another critical aspect of the Protect topic of the NESS should be a plan to broaden comprehensive talents for quick and efficaciously respond to future energy-associated incidents and failures. The response effort to the recent Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for example, well-known shows wholesale inadequacies of both authorities and private region abilities and reaction plans. It not most effective factors to insufficient ready resources which include containment booms, specialized boats, and backup “dome” devices, however, in addition, demonstrates how convoluted the coordination attempt can be with out a roadmap for making plans and exercising these responses. The U.S. Government should additionally be prepared to reinforce non-public businesses with additional reaction talents have to they lack the capacity to efficaciously reply to an incident in a well-timed manner.
If the U.S. Follows a logical path in the direction of less dependence on imported oil, then the cutting-edge transformation of our strength sector will involve more offshore drilling and nuclear power plant life. Accordingly, it’s far most effective suitable to advance the safety of our environment in a strategic sense.
The final theme of the comprehensive NESS is Evolve. In order to keep away from reliving the 1970s oil crises in the subsequent 20-30 years, there have to be a planned avenue map to renovate our infrastructure, transportation structures, residing groups, and human behaviors far away from oil dependence. Only effective evolution in these areas will produce enduring outcomes.
The number one objective of Evolve beneath the NESS must be the transformation of U.S. Infrastructure, strength-consuming structures, and people to be much less reliant on oil. There are several components of infrastructure that need to be upgraded or replaced with a view to foster energy safety for the twenty-first century. The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) signified a extremely good start line by authorizing over 113 billion dollars closer to growing a smart grid, enhancing neighborhood, state, and federal infrastructure, improving the federal vehicle fleet, updating public transportation systems, supplying tax credit for domestic proprietors and renewable strength businesses, and funding numerous incentives for research and development. Such a large investment, but, need to in some way be guided by a holistic pathway for the themes of ESCAPE and now not relegated to the one’s governments and businesses which can be view this trouble myopically. Spending and sequencing, consequently, need to first be aimed toward the maximum large energy liabilities.
For instance, the substitute of coal fired electricity flora with herbal gasoline flowers could produce energy with a third less energy required, while emitting forty-five percent less CO2. Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) additionally has the capability to offset strength demands from coal and oil with purifier burning gasoline, however requires the improvement of additional receiving terminals so as to account for the cutting-edge delta between delivery and call for (15%) and the possibility of future software in the transportation quarter and other industries. Nuclear strength plants, as cited in advance, produce even greater electricity with fewer emissions.
Public transportation improvements should rank above important dual carriageway tasks, specially avenue expansions that espouse the even more pathetic use of personal delivery in areas in which public transportation systems are abundant. The U.S. Is substantially outdone through different developed nations in mass transit. London has the oldest system and actions over three.Four million humans every day. In Hong Kong, mass transit offers ninety percent of all journey. On the contrary, 86 percent of the U.S. Team of workers drives to paintings, averaging 51 minutes on the street day by day.
Beyond infrastructure and transportation systems, there are numerous eclectic topics related to the social size that must be covered by the approach. Studies on destiny living groups, as an example, might also show to have resonant outcomes on strength intake within the United States.
Two distinguished authors on energy, Peter Tertzakian, and Jeff Rubin, both write with striking similarity about the evolution of residing conditions within the destiny due to oil shortages. Tertzakian writes that in the destiny we’d see the development of “Triple E Villages” that “combine ecology, electricity performance, and are electronically enabled.” In these villages, meals could be produced domestically, solar and wind energy will offer semi-autonomous power assets, and earning will be earned via our online world. Jeff Rubin believes that necessity will drive us to smaller communes targeted on meals sources such as farms or multistory greenhouses (“Farmscrapers”), due to the reduced availability of imported meals and items. These ideas might also seem to be a bit too radical to technique from the political pulpit, however, they despite the fact that factor to a place that wishes to adapt over the years if we’re to mitigate some of the root causes of steadily growing strength intake.
There is virtually no silver bullet over the horizon and the area cannot maintain the projected levels of oil consumption over the next few a long time. During this period, the arena will witness flashpoints over oil so one can be characterized by using accelerated war, terrorism, piracy, weather change, petropolitical coercion, and economic recession. In developing countries, the slow deprivation of this aid could be manifested through higher poverty rates, starvation, declining infrastructure and gross domestic product, and the ability disintegrates of governments.
World leaders should interfere now by putting the strategic direction for decreased oil intake and the U.S. Must lead the manner with a version method for power protection. This huge mission cannot be done, however, with the aid of only some courageous elected officers. It calls for a cohesion of attempt among the government, non-public organization, and the American human beings. The nation will no longer realize the imaginative and prescient of a more secure environment and a state freed from oil dependence through band-resource answers, together with short term tax credits, more green jobs, and hybrid automobiles. This can simplest be performed through bringing the presently diffuse efforts into concord with the implementation of a National Energy Security Strategy (NESS).
The NESS can offer the imaginative and prescient, framework, and pathway to a more secure future and make sure that each one stakeholder is guided by means of one complete attempt. The NESS have to deal with all lines of effort embodied in ESCAPE by means of putting objectives and milestones to be able to carefully mitigate the tensions and unintended effects of stove piped efforts.
The Department of Energy should have the lead function in developing the approach and coordinating the efforts. After all, President Carter created the branch in 1977 following the countrywide electricity crisis to supervise the National Energy Plan. This may additionally require a metamorphosis of the department for you to increase its capability to do strategic planning and to guide the intergovernmental, interagency, and multinational coordination.
The destiny of this grand kingdom and its kids rests in the hands of the leaders and residents who are making vital selections today. It is not so vital to linger on the fact this u. S . A . Propelled itself to hegemony via the industrious use of oil. Instead, it’s miles now time to cognizance towards transforming the American way into a more secure, extra sustainable, and rich society.
“We are made smart not by means of the recollection of our past, but by way of the responsibility for our destiny.” – George Bernard Shaw